Football’s growth machine risks damaging the game - Boston Consulting Group
Boston Consulting Group has warned that football’s rapid commercial growth is deepening financial inequality, increasing pressure on players and threatening competitive balance across the sport.
Football is approaching a point where its commercial expansion could undermine the competitions and audiences that support it, according to Boston Consulting Group, which has called for greater coordination between governing bodies, leagues and national associations.The consultancy said rising media and sponsorship revenues have transformed a small group of clubs into global businesses, while widening financial gaps, expanding calendars and placing greater demands on players and supporters.BCG global co-head of sports Jean-Paul Petranca said in an interview with City AM: “The reason we wrote the report is because all of these trends have happened over time, and what they’re leading towards is ever greater tensions in the game.“It’s an appeal to everybody to work together more, from the FIFA level to UEFA to the FAs in the countries to the leagues. We need a collective solution to some of these things.“The system could muddle through in the way it’s doing at the moment, but we are getting to a point where it’s very difficult to see the muddling through being the optimal outcome.”BCG is working with England’s Independent Football Regulator on the State of the Game report, which will help shape the watchdog’s approach to financial sustainability and potential redistribution between the Premier League and EFL.The consultancy’s latest analysis identifies competitive balance as a central risk, arguing that excessive income inequality can reduce uncertainty and weaken the integrity of domestic competitions.Petranca said: “You don’t need it to be totally equal. But you do need each team each week to have a chance at beating the other team.“The Premier League is not a totally even league, and it doesn’t need to be, but it has a ratio of income from top to bottom of about six to one. There are other leagues in Europe where the ratio of income from top to bottom is about 19 to one.”BCG estimates that when the income gap between two clubs exceeds approximately four to one, the higher-revenue team has an 80% likelihood of winning.The report also raises concerns about calendar congestion and the risk of overwhelming consumers as leagues, federations and rights holders seek additional fixtures and inventory.English football’s stalled redistribution talks remain a major test of whether the industry can reach a collective solution without regulatory intervention.Petranca described parachute payments as the “least worst solution”, noting that they soften the financial impact of relegation but also give former Premier League clubs an advantage over Championship rivals.He cautioned that excessive redistribution could weaken the Premier League against competing European leagues and damage one of English football’s most valuable global exports.The regulator’s State of the Game assessment will now inform whether it intervenes in the distribution of revenues between the Premier League and the wider professional pyramid.